Colored minority games

We study the behavior of simple models for financial markets with widely spread frequency either in the trading activity of agents or in the occurrence of basic events. The generic picture of a phase transition between information efficient and inefficient markets still persists even when agents trade on widely spread time-scales. We derive analytically the dependence of the critical threshold on the distribution of time-scales. We also address the issue of market efficiency as a function of frequency. In an inefficient market we find that the size of arbitrage opportunities is inversely proportional to the frequency of the events on which they occur. Greatest asymmetries in market outcomes are concentrated on the most rare events. The practical limits of the applications of these ideas to real markets are discussed in a specific example.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figure

Criticality of mostly informative samples: A Bayesian model selection approach

We discuss a Bayesian model selection approach to high dimensional data in the deep under sampling regime. The data is based on a representation of the possible discrete states $s$, as defined by the observer, and it consists of $M$ observations of the state. This approach shows that, for a given sample size $M$, not all states observed in the sample can be distinguished. Rather, only a partition of the sampled states $s$ can be resolved. Such partition defines an {\em emergent} classification $q_s$ of the states that becomes finer and finer as the sample size increases, through a process of {\em symmetry breaking} between states. This allows us to distinguish between the $resolution$ of a given representation of the observer defined states $s$, which is given by the entropy of $s$, and its $relevance$ which is defined by the entropy of the partition $q_s$. Relevance has a non-monotonic dependence on resolution, for a given sample size. In addition, we characterise most relevant samples and we show that they exhibit power law frequency distributions, generally taken as signatures of "criticality". This suggests that "criticality" reflects the relevance of a given representation of the states of a complex system, and does not necessarily require a specific mechanism of self-organisation to a critical point.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figure

On information efficiency and financial stability

We study a simple model of an asset market with informed and non-informed agents. In the absence of non-informed agents, the market becomes information efficient when the number of traders with different private information is large enough. Upon introducing non-informed agents, we find that the latter contribute significantly to the trading activity if and only if the market is (nearly) information efficient. This suggests that information efficiency might be a necessary condition for bubble phenomena, induced by the behavior of non-informed traders, or conversely that throwing some sands in the gears of financial markets may curb the occurrence of bubbles.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figure

Self Organization of Interacting Polya Urns

We introduce a simple model which shows non-trivial self organized critical properties. The model describes a system of interacting units, modelled by Polya urns, subject to perturbations and which occasionally break down. Three equivalent formulations - stochastic, quenched and deterministic - are shown to reproduce the same dynamics. Among the novel features of the model are a non-homogeneous stationary state, the presence of a non-stationary critical phase and non-trivial exponents even in mean field. We discuss simple interpretations in term of biological evolution and earthquake dynamics and we report on extensive numerical simulations in dimensions $d=1,2$ as well as in the random neighbors limit.Comment: 4 pages 1 figur